Bets on World Leaders: Insider Trading Allegations Surround Nicolás Maduro's Capture
A recent incident on the online marketplace Polymarket has raised suspicions about the involvement of insider trading in the betting game. On Friday, a new account on the platform placed $30,000 in bets on the downfall of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. By Saturday morning, when Maduro was suddenly ousted by US forces, the account had reportedly cashed out $436,759.61.
The exact origin of this windfall is unclear, but an archived snapshot circulating on social media suggests a total payout of $407,920.12. Regardless, it appears that someone made a surprisingly accurate prediction about the Venezuelan leader's fate. The Wall Street Journal has highlighted the unusual clustering of bets on Polymarket over the previous weekend, with $56.6 million wagered on Maduro's departure.
Contrary to expectations, however, Maduro did not leave power by November 30th or December 31st as many had predicted. Nonetheless, this incident underscores the possibility that some bettors may have received inside information about the plot against him. The situation surrounding Maduro's potential release from US custody also appears grim, with odds of his release by January 9th at just 1% and a 15% chance of it happening by the end of 2026.
Insider trading allegations are growing as more cases like this come to light on Polymarket. The incident raises questions about how bettors on these platforms are able to make such precise predictions, leaving many to wonder if there is an undercurrent of corruption at play.
A recent incident on the online marketplace Polymarket has raised suspicions about the involvement of insider trading in the betting game. On Friday, a new account on the platform placed $30,000 in bets on the downfall of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. By Saturday morning, when Maduro was suddenly ousted by US forces, the account had reportedly cashed out $436,759.61.
The exact origin of this windfall is unclear, but an archived snapshot circulating on social media suggests a total payout of $407,920.12. Regardless, it appears that someone made a surprisingly accurate prediction about the Venezuelan leader's fate. The Wall Street Journal has highlighted the unusual clustering of bets on Polymarket over the previous weekend, with $56.6 million wagered on Maduro's departure.
Contrary to expectations, however, Maduro did not leave power by November 30th or December 31st as many had predicted. Nonetheless, this incident underscores the possibility that some bettors may have received inside information about the plot against him. The situation surrounding Maduro's potential release from US custody also appears grim, with odds of his release by January 9th at just 1% and a 15% chance of it happening by the end of 2026.
Insider trading allegations are growing as more cases like this come to light on Polymarket. The incident raises questions about how bettors on these platforms are able to make such precise predictions, leaving many to wonder if there is an undercurrent of corruption at play.
. I mean, who makes $436k in a single weekend? That's some serious cash 
. And the fact that it happened on Polymarket, where people can just place bets on stuff, raises so many questions 
. Did someone actually get intel from inside or was this just a crazy coincidence? It's like, if you're gonna make millions off a bet, shouldn't you be the one making the predictions instead of buying them? 
I don't know, maybe I'm just missing something here... but it feels sketchy to me 
.
... these online betting platforms need more scrutiny 
... and what if there's an inside track? 
. And now they're saying there's only like a 1% chance of Maduro getting released by January 9th? That does seem pretty low... 
i was following this story and my friend's cousin is actually from Venezuela and he's been saying that something big was going down for months... like, months ago! 
. I mean, come on, how many people are actually privy to top-secret info about world leaders? It's just a bunch of lucky bets or something 
. And those odds of Maduro getting released by January 9th? 1%? That's just ridiculous 
. Maybe we should be looking at it from a different angle... like, what if these bettors are just really good at reading the tea leaves? 
1 in 100 chance of release by Jan 9th?! sounds like someone got the tea beforehand 
the odds of him being released are looking grim 1% by jan 9th? that's low 
[here](https://www.polymarket.com/)
it's time to get real about how power and wealth play out in our societies 
! I mean, the odds of 1% by Jan 9th and 15% by end 2026? That's crazy 
.
. But hey, at least it's creating some juicy speculation and debate online 
.
Are people just good at reading the tea leaves or is something else going on? And what about all those other people who bet on Maduro leaving power - did they have some kind of inside scoop too? 
. Like, how did this account somehow predict his downfall and then cash out so big-time? It's not exactly hard to believe that someone would get inside info on a top-secret operation 
... but still, 30k dollars doesn't seem like enough to just "accidentally" end up with such a large payout 
How do you even win that kind of money? It's giving me anxiety just thinking about it