Constitutional Coup in Guinea-Bissau: A Threat to Democratic Stability

The recent referendum in Guinea-Bissau resulted in a new constitution that significantly expands presidential powers. The changes, which passed with 70% of the vote, will reduce the number of seats in parliament and cut electoral constituencies, making it more difficult for opposition voices to be heard.

Critics see this as an attempt to consolidate power and undermine democratic institutions. The new constitution requires presidential candidates to have lived continuously in Guinea-Bissau for at least five years before the vote, a provision that appears to target diaspora-based politicians with significant followings.

Guinea-Bissau’s history is marked by instability. Since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974, the country has experienced at least 10 coup attempts, half of which were successful. The most recent coup came after disputed presidential elections last November, leading to a transitional ruling council being set up.

The outgoing constitution, enacted in 1993, was often cited as a cause of instability. However, the new constitution seems to be more a reflection of the country’s troubled past than a departure from it. By centralizing power and limiting opposition voices, the ruling elite is perpetuating a cycle of instability that has plagued Guinea-Bissau for decades.

The opposition party, PAIGC, which was barred from fielding a presidential candidate in the 2025 election, urged its supporters to boycott the referendum, calling it a “democratic farce.” The leader of the party, Domingos Simões Pereira, warned that the referendum would be the continuation of the coup d’état carried out last November.

The international community has been relatively quiet on this development. Some countries maintain diplomatic relations with the transitional council while others have suspended aid programs due to concerns over governance. However, it remains to be seen whether the international community will take a stronger stance against these constitutional changes and their implications for democratic stability in Guinea-Bissau.

December’s elections are expected to proceed under the new constitution, which many hope will bring an end to Guinea-Bissau’s cycle of instability. However, with the opposition already weakened by the referendum, it is unclear whether the outcome will be any more legitimate or representative than previous polls. The new constitution has dealt a significant blow to democratic institutions in Guinea-Bissau and set back efforts towards stability and good governance.

As Guinea-Bissau heads into this critical period, its international partners must decide how to respond to these developments. Will they continue to turn a blind eye to the erosion of democracy in Guinea-Bissau, or will they take a stronger stance against the constitutional changes and their implications for democratic stability? The world is watching as Guinea-Bissau navigates this precarious path towards elections.

The people of Guinea-Bissau have been denied a chance to participate in shaping their country’s future through free and fair elections. Instead, they have been presented with a constitution that consolidates power and undermines democratic institutions. The consequences of this development will be far-reaching, not only for Guinea-Bissau but also for the wider region.

The clock is ticking down to December’s elections, and it remains to be seen whether the people of Guinea-Bissau will finally have a chance to participate in shaping their country’s future. But one thing is certain: the constitutional coup in Guinea-Bissau has dealt a significant blow to democratic stability in the region, and its international partners must take notice.