The Rise of Bet-on-Election Apps: A Growing Concern for Democracy
A new trend in online betting is gaining traction, with apps like Kalshi and Polymarket offering users the chance to wager on everything from presidential elections to economic indicators. While these platforms promise a more accurate forecast of the future than traditional polling, experts are sounding the alarm about their potential impact on democracy.
The idea behind prediction markets is that a diverse group of participants, acting on different information and insights, will collectively arrive at the most accurate price or probability of an event happening. In theory, this approach harnesses the "wisdom of the crowd" to create unbiased forecasts. However, critics argue that these platforms are more prone to manipulation than they'd have you believe.
One reason is that these apps tend to skew towards a particular demographic - in this case, crypto bros who can make large bets. This lack of diversity makes them less effective at gathering wisdom about the real world, especially on edge cases.
The concern isn't just about accuracy; it's also about the potential for manipulation. Kalshi, one of the apps offering these services, was recently embroiled in a legal battle with federal regulators over allegations of "spectacular manipulation" by traders betting heavily on certain candidates. Such behavior can give deep-pocketed political actors an additional tool to influence public opinion.
Moreover, these platforms are now partnering with major news organizations like CNN and CNBC, which could further amplify the dissemination of misinformation and biased opinions.
The Intercept's editor-in-chief, Ben Messick, recently warned that these betting apps may end up worsening our crisis of trust in an already-fractured information environment. "For a platform partnering with a news organization, a commitment to veracity does not appear to be its first priority," he said.
As we head into the 2026 election cycle, The Intercept is urging readers to support their reporting efforts by becoming members. With the stakes higher than ever, democracy needs independent, trustworthy journalism more than ever.
A new trend in online betting is gaining traction, with apps like Kalshi and Polymarket offering users the chance to wager on everything from presidential elections to economic indicators. While these platforms promise a more accurate forecast of the future than traditional polling, experts are sounding the alarm about their potential impact on democracy.
The idea behind prediction markets is that a diverse group of participants, acting on different information and insights, will collectively arrive at the most accurate price or probability of an event happening. In theory, this approach harnesses the "wisdom of the crowd" to create unbiased forecasts. However, critics argue that these platforms are more prone to manipulation than they'd have you believe.
One reason is that these apps tend to skew towards a particular demographic - in this case, crypto bros who can make large bets. This lack of diversity makes them less effective at gathering wisdom about the real world, especially on edge cases.
The concern isn't just about accuracy; it's also about the potential for manipulation. Kalshi, one of the apps offering these services, was recently embroiled in a legal battle with federal regulators over allegations of "spectacular manipulation" by traders betting heavily on certain candidates. Such behavior can give deep-pocketed political actors an additional tool to influence public opinion.
Moreover, these platforms are now partnering with major news organizations like CNN and CNBC, which could further amplify the dissemination of misinformation and biased opinions.
The Intercept's editor-in-chief, Ben Messick, recently warned that these betting apps may end up worsening our crisis of trust in an already-fractured information environment. "For a platform partnering with a news organization, a commitment to veracity does not appear to be its first priority," he said.
As we head into the 2026 election cycle, The Intercept is urging readers to support their reporting efforts by becoming members. With the stakes higher than ever, democracy needs independent, trustworthy journalism more than ever.
... I mean, on one hand, it's cool that we've got people from all walks of life chiming in on events, but on the other, if it's just a bunch of crypto bros with deep pockets getting to dictate what happens, that's not exactly the wisdom of the crowd if you ask me 
... and news orgs partnering up with these apps is like, super concerning - how can we trust what we're reading when there are folks out there trying to game the system? 
these prediction markets are sketchy at best. who do they think they are? basically a bunch of rich dudes making big bets on stuff that's gonna affect our lives. and now they're partnered with major news orgs like CNN? 
I just saw this thread and I'm kinda surprised it's already dead. These prediction markets sound like a mixed bag to me - on one hand, it's cool that regular people can contribute their own insights to forecasting events. But at the same time, it feels like they're just opening up another channel for special interests to influence the outcome. Like, if only certain kinds of people are participating in these bets, how accurate do you think those forecasts really are? 
. It's like, what's next? Bet-tin' on whether your kid's gonna make it through school or not? 
Give me a break!
... how are we gonna know what's real and what's just a bunch of betting nonsense? 
. I mean, who thought it was a good idea to let people with deep pockets and loose morals influence public opinion? It's like we're already having enough issues with fake news and propaganda. And now we've got these prediction markets that are just begging to be manipulated? 
.
These bet-on-election apps are a ticking time bomb for our democracy 
They're catering to the wrong crowd and amplifying misinformation 
. And yeah, it's weird that these apps tend to attract a specific crowd - crypto bros who can make big bets might not always have the best interests of the general public in mind 
no thanks!
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We need more than just a "wisdom of the crowd" vibe to make sure our democracy is doing alright. And partnering with major news orgs like CNN and CNBC on top of that... 
. And then there's the whole issue of manipulation - I mean, who's gonna police these apps? Crypto bros betting heavily on their favorite candidates is just gonna give 'em more power